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When we think of the affects of climate change, my mind always thinks of scorched earth and dying vines crying out for water, but the consequences are much more varied with unusual weather patterns causing a headache for winemakers for a multitude of reasons.
France, with it's strict laws determining what you can and can't do in the vineyard, absolutely no irrigation for example, has less flexibility that other regions around the world to mitigate the affects unexpected wetaher can cause, and the news coming out of France this year does not make good reading.
The harvest is expected to decrease by up to 16% in 2024 compared to the previous year, according to the French agriculture ministry’s Agreste statistics unit. Unusually rainy conditions during flowering have disrupted fruit set, and a wet early summer has led to widespread outbreaks of downy mildew in vineyards from Bordeaux to Alsace.
National wine production may drop to between 40 million and 43 million hectolitres this year, down from 47.9 million hectolitres in 2023, based on the first official forecast published last Friday. This could result in one of the smallest harvests in the past century.
"Downy mildew, favoured by wet conditions in early summer, is affecting most wine-growing areas and could cause major losses," Agreste reported. Additionally, frost and hail in certain areas have further reduced production volumes.
French winemakers have been grappling with extreme or unusual weather in recent years. Frost in 2017 and 2021, for example, pushed production below 40 million hectolitres. In the past hundred years, wine production in France has fallen below this level only six times, including during and just after World War II.
Agreste noted that production is expected to decrease across nearly all wine-growing regions. However, the estimates are provisional due to ongoing grape-health issues and unpredictable weather conditions. High soil moisture levels might mitigate the overall decline, although vine development is currently one to two weeks behind last year.
Bordeaux's production is likely to decrease due to a combination of an 8,000-hectare reduction in vineyard area as part of a grubbing-up plan, along with poor fruit set and hail damage. In Burgundy, heavy rains have encouraged 'virulent' mildew, which is expected to reduce the harvest, with neighbouring Beaujolais also under strong disease pressure.
The Loire Valley is facing a similar challenge, with strong mildew pressure expected to reduce grape yields. Cold and wet conditions during flowering have caused significant coulure—the failure of grape flowers to develop into berries. Alsace is also suffering from mildew, while late spring frost caused severe damage in Provence, further exacerbated by mildew.
Champagne's production potential has been hit by spring frost and hail, while abundant rainfall has led to coulure and ideal conditions for mildew. In Charentes, which includes the Cognac region, humid conditions during flowering are predicted to cause a significant drop in volumes following record production in 2023.
Languedoc-Roussillon is one of the few regions where flowering conditions were favourable, though subsequent weather varied. Water stress in the western part of the region and excess humidity in the Gard to the east have caused 'very virulent' mildew outbreaks.